Research in this program, organized by date.
US GDP accelerated to 3.4% annualised while September real disposable income fell; Treasury yields declined, technology shares sold off, and Japan changed its future ETF disposal pace.
The Fed held 3.75–4.00% with two dissents while Canada raised rates; US long yields rose despite a softer two-year yield, revealing divergent responses to energy inflation and financing needs.
SK hynix's contracted HBM capacity and record profits expose a widening gap between supplier earnings and downstream AI financing, while Australia and New Zealand diverge on inflation and rates.
Brazil's 13.88% equity selloff, FX depreciation and debt-auction cancellation contrast with gains in US and European stocks and stable US yields.
The TSE confirms Lula's 51.79% runoff win as Brazil approaches Monday trading with ten-year US Treasury yields at 5.00%, oil costs elevated and policy outcomes still conditional.
Brazil's Sunday runoff creates a closed-market political information shock as Friday's crude futures reflect renewed Gulf shipping risk; the cross-asset transmission depends on fiscal institutions, dollar yields and physical throughput.
Blockchain, venture capital, stablecoins, tokenization, infrastructure and the financing of artificial intelligence in contemporary political economy.
Yanis Varoufakis, Evgeny Morozov and Cédric Durand on property, monopoly power, cloud capital, labor and democratic governance.
Intellectual biography: game theory, eurozone negotiations of 2015, sovereign debt, DiEM25, MeRA25 and cloud capital.
The election, Brazil's long struggle over the state, US interventions in Latin America, conservative congressional power, inequality, BRICS, China and Brazil's strategic options through 2030.
New October flash PMIs reveal a sharp US/euro-area divergence while Treasury yields, household affordability and fund flows signal selective risk-taking.
Institutional investigation of feudal and manorial land, rents, peasant labour, commons, courts, plagues and regional divergence, differentiating fiefs from rural estates.
Comparative medieval economic history from agricultural surplus to urban markets, guilds, monetary instruments and the demographic effects of plague across distinct world regions.
A 360-degree study of the AI investment boom: historical bubbles, 2026 corporate filings, cloud capex, lease commitments, circular credit, GPU depreciation, software technical debt, electricity, productivity and conditional paths through 2030.
A historical biography of Campos's diplomacy, Bretton Woods, Petrobras proposal, BNDE, Targets Plan, PAEG, Central Bank, ORTN, FGTS, memoirs and later economic liberalism.
New Japanese September inflation shows 2.1% headline and 2.4% excluding fresh food and energy; euro-area quarterly debt reaches 88.8% of GDP and the US 30-year mortgage rate remains high at 7.32%.
US initial claims fall to 194,000 while continuing insured unemployment rises; China's manufacturing diverges from construction and European inflation remains energy-led.
The UK reports 3.5% annual CPI inflation, 8.3% producer input inflation and £24.52 billion in monthly borrowing, exposing the transmission of energy shocks into prices and public finances.
September US housing starts declined and contracts for existing homes fell sharply as 30-year mortgage rates reached 7.40%, exposing diverging household and industrial cycles.
September output rose 0.7% but utilities and semiconductors outpaced ordinary manufacturing, while overall utilization remained below normal.
A cross-disciplinary study of mortality, employment, poverty, learning, mental health, social trust and the operational gaps of 2026 pandemic preparedness, with conditional scenarios for a future outbreak.
IMF sovereign-yield evidence and new projections reveal how energy prices interact with debt maturity, fiscal support and financial liquidity.
IEA October data show Gulf crude exports recovering faster than refined diesel shipments, creating differentiated risks to trade costs and real incomes.
US September import prices rose 1.1% and export prices 2.2%; final euro-area annual inflation at 3.8% exposes energy-driven differences across countries and trade channels.
September US PPI rose 1.3% and CPI 0.6% while real hourly earnings fell 0.5%; the key test is energy pass-through into core prices, demand and sovereign financing.
The IMF's October 14 fiscal warning intersects with divergent US winter heating expenses and a still-pending September CPI release; debt refinancing and household incidence are the core transmission channels.
The IMF now projects 3.1% world growth and 4.7% global inflation in 2026; AI concentration, energy import exposure and sovereign finance frame the risks.
Fed and ECB tightening, euro-area inflation at 3.8%, weaker US hiring and high sovereign debt frame the IMF–World Bank meetings and the week's coming data.
Food output does not guarantee healthy diets. FAO's 2026 price and affordability findings reveal the roles of income, logistics, childhood nutrition, food safety and public institutions.
A new UNDP assessment quantifies rising fuel costs, potential poverty exposure and shrinking fiscal room before the IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok.
Brazil's September IPCA reached 0.82% as the Itaipu rebate reversed; equities rose even while U.S. Treasury yields and oil kept financing and living costs elevated.
EIA raised Brent forecasts for 2026 and 2027; long Treasury yields eased after the 8 October auction, but Brazil's Friday IPCA and future energy pass-through remain unresolved.
The U.S. 30-year auction cleared at 5.618% with 2.54-times cover; benchmark yields fell from Wednesday's close even as Brent stayed above $100 and the Fed exposed a new competition for long-term capital.
Oil is back above $101 while U.S. long yields return to multi-decade extremes, putting the 10-year Treasury reopening and FOMC minutes at the center of today's financial-conditions test.
Long U.S. yields remain near multi-decade highs even as oil eases below the recent risk peak, equities stay resilient, China stabilizes and Brazil absorbs a post-election repricing shock.
U.S. services remain in expansion and global manufacturing is at its strongest since 2022, while weak payrolls, high business price indexes, 5%+ long yields and Brazil's post-election repricing create a more unstable policy mix.
Seven OPEC+ producers kept September required production unchanged for November, while the JMMC warned that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to maritime routes can tighten supply and increase volatility.
Portugal has cut public debt sharply, reached historically low unemployment and built a renewable-heavy electricity system, but productivity, housing and ageing will determine whether post-PRR growth produces durable convergence in living standards.
September payrolls rose only 29,000 and July-August were revised down by 60,000, but PCE inflation remains 3.4% and long Treasury yields stayed above 5%.
Germany retains exceptional industrial depth and institutional capacity, but its 2026 transition depends on converting larger infrastructure, defence and energy investment into productivity while employment and demography tighten.
Israel combines globally competitive technology and defence systems with unusually deep mobilisation capacity, but the post-2023 security burden, infrastructure gaps and uneven demographic participation increasingly determine whether resilience can remain fiscally and socially durable.
Poland combines fast convergence, manufacturing integration and EU-funded investment with demographic contraction, renewed inflation, record defence spending and a rapid renewable-nuclear energy transition.
Euro-area inflation accelerated to 3.8% as energy reached 18.8%; Japan unemployment rose to 2.5% while new job postings fell 3.4% year on year.
U.S. factory demand strengthened, but ISM Prices rose to 77.9 and the 10-year Treasury stayed above 5%; Europe softened while propane exports hit records.
China's manufacturing PMI returned to 50.1 while Australia's CPI accelerated to 4.0% and UK second-quarter growth was revised to 0.5%, turning policy divergence into measurable macro divergence.
Australia raised its cash rate to 4.60% while China cut the one-year PSL rate to 1.50% and added targeted housing support, widening regional policy dispersion under a U.S. long-rate regime above 5%.
Refined-product inflation is outrunning the crude headline, widening the transmission from Hormuz into freight, prices and monetary policy as Australia approaches another rate decision.
French sovereign and bank risk premia are widening faster than the common euro-area rate shock, while AI-linked borrowers still access large pools of capital at a higher marginal price.
A structural dossier on how France's centralized institutions, welfare state, strategic industries, nuclear electricity and euro membership interact with weak productivity growth and rising fiscal pressure.
August capital-goods orders show a resilient U.S. equipment-investment cycle even as long real and nominal yields remain restrictive and household inflation expectations rise.
A structural dossier on how federal institutions, regional production, demographics and capital markets shape U.S. capacity and the global transmission of dollar conditions.
Global equities are heading for their best week since early August even as long sovereign yields remain near multi-decade highs, revealing a selective cross-asset shock rather than uniform tightening.
A strong U.S. activity surprise and weak Treasury auction pushed the 10-year above 5.1%, transmitted into Japanese bonds and restored sovereign duration as the main cross-asset tightening channel while oil risk rebounded.
Oil below $100 has reduced an acute inflation tail risk, but a firm dollar, high long yields, European gas costs and incomplete Gulf normalization keep global financial conditions restrictive.
A structural reconstruction of Mercosur as a political peace project, imperfect customs union, production network and external negotiating platform at the moment Bolivia is incorporated and the EU agreement enters provisional application.
The 1991 legal dollar parity rapidly reduced inflation and restored nominal credibility, but its hard exchange-rate constraint increasingly shifted adjustment onto domestic prices, output, fiscal accounts and debt as external conditions deteriorated.
The August 1985 program sharply reduced fiscal financing pressure while changing the exchange-rate, price and public-sector regime; hyperinflation ended quickly, but the wider restructuring carried distinct employment and distributional costs.
The July 1985 program combined fiscal correction, tight money, exchange-rate stabilization and a negotiated wage-price framework to interrupt an inflation process embedded in several indexed institutions at once.
Latency, programmable liquidity, tokenised settlement and event contracts are turning market architecture into an economic variable, while the evidence is maturing at different speeds across each mechanism.
The 2026 LIC-DSF review adds domestic-debt and long-term modules, recalibrates debt-stress thresholds, introduces new model signals and data-confidence treatment, while keeping the harmonised discount rate at 5%.
The latest institutional cycle combines tighter policy in the United States and Japan, a divided hold in the United Kingdom, a new IMF–World Bank debt framework for low-income countries, live Eurosystem settlement of tokenised assets in central bank money, and a new NDB strategy cycle.
Oil relief lifted equities and duration, but long U.S. yields, European gas pass-through and unresolved geopolitical constraints keep the global regime restrictive.
The 1994 stabilization separated the unit of account from the means of payment before launching the real, attacking backward-looking indexation while fiscal, monetary, credit and exchange-rate measures supported the transition.
Oil relief and selective AI strength coexist with Treasury yields above 5%, while U.S.-China talks reduce diplomatic opacity without yet changing trade or technology restrictions.
Lower oil is easing the immediate inflation shock, but a 4.93% U.S. 10-year par yield, a steep 2s30s curve, defensive fund flows and weak Chinese credit demand keep global financing conditions restrictive as U.S.-China talks move AI and rare earths into the near-term calendar.
Lower oil is easing the immediate inflation shock, but near-5% Treasury yields, synchronized central-bank tightening and large equity-fund outflows keep global financial conditions restrictive.
Lower oil is easing immediate inflation tail risk while the Fed, BOE and BOJ keep global financing conditions restrictive; Japan, European gas and Gulf logistics reveal where the next cross-asset divergences sit.
Japan combines a shrinking workforce, monetary normalization, heavy energy-import dependence and a huge external asset position; together they explain why domestic policy changes can transmit into global rates, currencies and capital allocation.
Partial relief in Saudi export logistics has reduced the immediate crude-supply tail risk, but Fed tightening keeps global financial conditions restrictive while Hormuz traffic remains severely impaired.
Saudi Arabia’s new loading route via Oman reduces the immediate risk of oil scarcity and eases yields at the margin, but a 10-year Treasury near 5% keeps global financing conditions restrictive ahead of the Fed and Copom decisions.
Oil at US$107–108, the 10-year Treasury up to 5.04% and a stronger dollar turn the energy disruption into a broader increase in financing costs; credit markets still do not indicate a systemic crisis.
The energy supply shock, a 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, the semiconductor correction, weak Chinese credit and Brazil's election are interacting through inflation, financing costs, currencies and risk appetite.