Genealogy
State formation, borders, agreements, alliances, previous crises and ruptures that altered the security balance.
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Conflict Systems
Long-horizon research on how conflicts form, how countries and societies interpret them, and how security shocks transmit through institutions, economies and social systems.
ANALYTICAL STRUCTURE
Dimensions of the conflict system
The analysis combines historical trajectory, institutions, political economy, social structure, military and industrial capacity, collective perceptions and escalation mechanisms.
Country and society
Institutions, political economy, demography, inequality, energy, industry, infrastructure and state capacity.
Collective perception
Historical memory, identity, trust, threat perception, public opinion and tolerance for costs, grounded in observable evidence.
Doctrine and capability
Stated objectives, doctrine, available force, fiscal base, industry, technology, logistics and alliance commitments.
Interpretations
Diplomats, historians, political scientists and strategists compared by thesis, causal mechanism, assumptions, evidence, counterarguments and revisions of position.
Transmission
Effects on households, labor, migration, trade, energy, capital, technology, institutions and political coalitions.
Escalation
Military posture, nuclear signalling, crisis communication, alliance readiness, arms control and containment mechanisms.
Contradiction
Core propositions accompanied by counterevidence, alternative explanations, confidence and revision criteria.
Evidence hierarchy
Treaties, legislation, official statistics and institutional documents support observable facts. Historical and academic research underpins causal reconstruction. Memoirs, speeches, interviews and works by diplomats or strategists record attributed interpretations, with dates, sources and any subsequent revisions of position.
Europe–Russia–Ukraine: how the post-Cold War security system became a war system
A long-horizon reconstruction of the institutions, identities, threat perceptions, political economies and strategic choices that connect Ukraine, Russia, NATO and Europe—from the cooperative opening of the 1990s to the militarized security order of 2026.
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