China's October factory and export-order surveys fell below 50, Europe's Q3 GDP growth slowed and US yields eased; uneven demand meets persistent energy risks.
| Indicator / period | Value (diffusion-index points (50 = neutral)) |
|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 49.8 |
| 2026-09 | 50.1 |
| 2026-10 | 49.3 |
The order breakdown is more informative than the headline. New domestic-and-export orders together fell from 50.5 in September to 49.4 in October. New export orders fell from 50.0 to 48.7; imports from 49.2 to 47.0; and purchasing volumes from 51.0 to 48.9. The latter two measures suggest weaker procurement demand, but a survey cannot establish whether firms reduced purchases because of final sales, inventory policies, financing constraints or precautionary responses to uncertainty. Finished-goods inventories were 47.5, while raw-material inventories were 48.4; these are diffusion measures, not observed stock levels in tonnes or yuan. [1]
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