Global conditions: sourced observations
Dated historical indicators rather than real-time quotes, with primary sources and methodological qualifications.
Each observation preserves period, population, geography, source release date, unit, publication status and caveats. No series are combined unless denominators and geographical coverage match. A newer source release requires a new or revised observation, not a mere timestamp edit. Observed data, stock changes and forecasts are explicitly distinct; IMF and OECD projections are retained as separately sourced scenarios.
Global growth and inflation — institutional forecasts
| Indicator | Coverage / period | Value | Source | Qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World real GDP growth — projection IMF projected world real GDP growth in 2026. | World 2026 | 3.1 % year on year FORECAST | IMF ↗ 2026-10-13 | Projection, not observed GDP growth; IMF WEO coverage, weighting and assumptions differ from OECD. |
| World consumer inflation — projection IMF projected global headline consumer inflation for 2026. | World 2026 | 4.7 % year on year FORECAST | IMF ↗ 2026-10-13 | Projected worldwide aggregate; not euro-area or EU inflation and not a realized 12-month observation. |
| World real GDP growth — projection IMF projected world real GDP growth in 2027. | World 2027 | 3.4 % year on year FORECAST | IMF ↗ 2026-10-13 | Projection, not observed GDP growth; IMF WEO coverage, weighting and assumptions differ from OECD. |
| World consumer inflation — projection IMF projected global headline consumer inflation for 2027. | World 2027 | 4.1 % year on year FORECAST | IMF ↗ 2026-10-13 | Projected worldwide aggregate; not euro-area or EU inflation and not a realized 12-month observation. |
| World real GDP growth — projection OECD September 2026 interim forecast for world real GDP growth in 2026. | World 2026 | 2.9 % year on year FORECAST | OECD ↗ 2026-09-23 | Not interchangeable with IMF projections; earlier information cutoff, different model and aggregation. |
| World real GDP growth — projection OECD September 2026 interim forecast for world real GDP growth in 2027. | World 2027 | 3 % year on year FORECAST | OECD ↗ 2026-09-23 | Not interchangeable with IMF projections; earlier information cutoff, different model and aggregation. |
Prices, jobs and housing
| Indicator | Coverage / period | Value | Source | Qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual HICP inflation European Union headline HICP annual inflation, September 2026. | European Union 2026-09 | 3.8 % year on year OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-16 | Headline HICP, not the euro-area measure or an individual's consumer basket. |
| Annual HICP inflation Euro-area headline HICP inflation in September 2026, with the 2026 EA21 membership definition. | Euro area (21 members) 2026-09 | 3.8 % year on year OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-16 | Historical EA20 observations and current EA21 observations require harmonised coverage. |
| Unemployment EU seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, August 2026. | European Union 2026-08 | 6.1 % of labour force OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-01 | Does not measure underemployment, inactivity, job quality or all working-age residents. |
| Youth unemployment Youth unemployment among economically active persons under 25 in the EU. | European Union 2026-08 | 15.4 % of youth labour force OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-01 | Denominator is the young labour force; this is not the share of all young persons. |
| House-price growth EU house-price index growth in Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025. | European Union 2026-Q2 | 4.7 % year on year OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-01 | Not a rent index; does not measure mortgage affordability in individual cities. |
| Rent-price growth EU rent price index growth in Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025. | European Union 2026-Q2 | 3 % year on year OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-01 | Harmonised index, not a single-city asking-rent series. |
| Energy contribution to inflation Energy component contribution to annual euro-area HICP inflation. | Euro area (21 members) 2026-09 | 1.71 percentage points OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-16 | Contribution in percentage points, not the energy price index growth rate. |
| Annual HICP inflation Romania annual HICP inflation in September 2026. | Romania 2026-09 | 6.5 % year on year OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-16 | National HICP is comparable by methodology, but household baskets and national exposures still differ. |
| Annual HICP inflation Lithuania annual HICP inflation in September 2026. | Lithuania 2026-09 | 6.1 % year on year OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-16 | National HICP is comparable by methodology, but household baskets and national exposures still differ. |
| Annual HICP inflation Bulgaria annual HICP inflation in September 2026. | Bulgaria 2026-09 | 5.6 % year on year OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | Eurostat ↗ 2026-10-16 | National HICP is comparable by methodology, but household baskets and national exposures still differ. |
Asylum system
| Indicator | Coverage / period | Value | Source | Qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum applications Approximate asylum applications lodged in EU+ in calendar 2025, down 19% from 2024. | EU+ asylum area 2025 | 822,000 applications, approximately OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | EUAA ↗ 2026-03-03 | EU+ is not identical to EU; requests are not total migrant entries and can include repeated claims. |
| Asylum cases pending first-instance decision Approximate EU+ asylum applications pending at first instance at the end of 2025. | EU+ asylum area 2025 | 863,000 cases, approximately OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | EUAA ↗ 2026-06-09 | Stock of undecided cases, not applications filed in the year or people arriving. |
Energy production and product shipments
| Indicator | Coverage / period | Value | Source | Qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World oil supply IEA estimated global oil supply in September 2026. | World 2026-09 | 102.3 million barrels/day OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | IEA ↗ 2026-10-14 | Supply is a production flow, not exports or stocks; subsequent IEA revisions possible. |
| Middle East refined-product exports September 2026 refined-product shipments from the Middle East; IEA cites 4.7 mb/d pre-war. | Middle East 2026-09 | 1.9 million barrels/day OBSERVED/ESTIMATED Reference: 4.7 million barrels/day (pre-war) | IEA ↗ 2026-10-14 | Product export category and regional definition differ from crude-oil production; the reference is not a precise matched-month counterfactual. |
| World oil demand change — projection IEA October forecast: world oil demand in 2026 averages 2.6 million b/d less than in 2025. | World 2026 | -2.6 million barrels/day change FORECAST | IEA ↗ 2026-10-14 | Forecast change, not the absolute demand level or observed monthly supply. |
| Gulf crude-oil exports IEA estimated Gulf crude exports of 13.9 million barrels/day in September 2026. | Middle East 2026-09 | 13.9 million barrels/day OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | IEA ↗ 2026-10-14 | Crude exports, distinct from refined-product exports and production; subject to revision. |
| Oil flow through Hormuz IEA estimated total oil flows through Hormuz of 10.9 million b/d in September 2026. | Strait of Hormuz 2026-09 | 10.9 million barrels/day OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | IEA ↗ 2026-10-14 | Transit through a route, not an independent increment to Gulf crude exports. |
| Change in observed oil inventories since February Observed global inventories at end-September were 509 million barrels below end-February 2026 levels. | World 2026-09 | -509 million barrels of stock change OBSERVED/ESTIMATED | IEA ↗ 2026-10-14 | Observed change in stock over the named interval; not oil production, consumption or export flows. |