{ "schema_version": 1, "status": "observations_not_live_quotes", "updated_at": "2026-10-20", "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-19", "method": { "en": "Each observation preserves period, population, geography, source release date, unit, publication status and caveats. No series are combined unless denominators and geographical coverage match. A newer source release requires a new or revised observation, not a mere timestamp edit. Observed data, stock changes and forecasts are explicitly distinct; IMF and OECD projections are retained as separately sourced scenarios.", "pt-BR": "Cada observação preserva período, população, geografia, data da fonte, unidade, situação de publicação e ressalvas. Séries não são combinadas sem populações e abrangência geográfica compatíveis. Fonte nova exige observação nova ou revisada, não apenas alteração do timestamp. Dados observados, variações de estoque e previsões são categorias distintas; as projeções do FMI e da OCDE são mantidas separadamente." }, "observations": [ { "id": "eu-hicp-2026-09", "indicator": "annual_hicp_inflation", "geography": "EU", "population": "EU consumer expenditure basket", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-16", "value": 3.8, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_final", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-16102026-ap" }, "description": { "en": "European Union headline HICP annual inflation, September 2026.", "pt-BR": "Inflação anual do IPCH agregado da União Europeia em setembro de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Headline HICP, not the euro-area measure or an individual's consumer basket.", "pt-BR": "IPCH agregado, distinto da medida da zona do euro e da cesta particular de uma família." } }, { "id": "euro-area-hicp-2026-09", "indicator": "annual_hicp_inflation", "geography": "EA21", "population": "Euro area consumer expenditure basket", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-16", "value": 3.8, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_final", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-16102026-ap" }, "description": { "en": "Euro-area headline HICP inflation in September 2026, with the 2026 EA21 membership definition.", "pt-BR": "Inflação anual do IPCH da zona do euro em setembro de 2026, usando a composição EA21 de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Historical EA20 observations and current EA21 observations require harmonised coverage.", "pt-BR": "Séries históricas EA20 e observações EA21 exigem harmonização territorial." } }, { "id": "eu-unemployment-2026-08", "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "geography": "EU", "population": "EU labour force", "period": "2026-08", "released_at": "2026-10-01", "value": 6.1, "unit": "percent_labor_force", "status": "official_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "Euro area unemployment at 6.4%, EU at 6.1%", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/3-01102026-ap" }, "description": { "en": "EU seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, August 2026.", "pt-BR": "Taxa de desemprego dessazonalizada da UE em agosto de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Does not measure underemployment, inactivity, job quality or all working-age residents.", "pt-BR": "Não mede subemprego, inatividade, qualidade do emprego ou todos os residentes em idade ativa." } }, { "id": "eu-youth-unemployment-2026-08", "indicator": "youth_unemployment_rate", "geography": "EU", "population": "EU labour force under 25 years old", "period": "2026-08", "released_at": "2026-10-01", "value": 15.4, "unit": "percent_youth_labor_force", "status": "official_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "Euro area unemployment at 6.4%, EU at 6.1%", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/3-01102026-ap" }, "description": { "en": "Youth unemployment among economically active persons under 25 in the EU.", "pt-BR": "Desemprego entre pessoas economicamente ativas com menos de 25 anos na UE." }, "caveat": { "en": "Denominator is the young labour force; this is not the share of all young persons.", "pt-BR": "O denominador é a força de trabalho jovem, não todos os jovens." } }, { "id": "eu-house-prices-2026-q2", "indicator": "house_price_index_growth", "geography": "EU", "population": "Residential real-estate transactions covered by EU HPI", "period": "2026-Q2", "released_at": "2026-10-01", "value": 4.7, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "House prices and rents continued to rise in Q2 2026", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20261001-3" }, "description": { "en": "EU house-price index growth in Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025.", "pt-BR": "Variação do índice de preços de imóveis da UE no segundo trimestre de 2026 contra 2025." }, "caveat": { "en": "Not a rent index; does not measure mortgage affordability in individual cities.", "pt-BR": "Não representa aluguéis nem acessibilidade ao financiamento em cidades específicas." } }, { "id": "eu-rents-2026-q2", "indicator": "rent_price_index_growth", "geography": "EU", "population": "EU harmonised rent price index", "period": "2026-Q2", "released_at": "2026-10-01", "value": 3, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "House prices and rents continued to rise in Q2 2026", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20261001-3" }, "description": { "en": "EU rent price index growth in Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025.", "pt-BR": "Variação do índice de aluguéis da UE no segundo trimestre de 2026 contra 2025." }, "caveat": { "en": "Harmonised index, not a single-city asking-rent series.", "pt-BR": "Índice harmonizado, não uma série de anúncios de aluguel de determinada cidade." } }, { "id": "eu-plus-asylum-applications-2025", "indicator": "asylum_applications", "geography": "EU_PLUS", "population": "Applications to EU+ asylum systems", "period": "2025", "released_at": "2026-03-03", "value": 822000, "unit": "applications_approx", "status": "agency_estimate_rounded", "source": { "publisher": "EUAA", "title": "EU+ asylum applications down by one fifth in 2025", "url": "https://www.euaa.europa.eu/news-events/eu-asylum-applications-down-one-fifth-2025-amid-shifting-geopolitical-dynamics" }, "description": { "en": "Approximate asylum applications lodged in EU+ in calendar 2025, down 19% from 2024.", "pt-BR": "Número aproximado de solicitações de asilo na UE+ em 2025, queda de 19% ante 2024." }, "caveat": { "en": "EU+ is not identical to EU; requests are not total migrant entries and can include repeated claims.", "pt-BR": "UE+ não equivale à UE; pedidos não são entradas migratórias totais e podem incluir solicitações repetidas." } }, { "id": "world-oil-supply-2026-09", "indicator": "world_oil_supply", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "World crude, condensates and associated liquid fuels measured by IEA", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-14", "value": 102.3, "unit": "million_barrels_per_day", "status": "agency_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "IEA", "title": "Oil Market Report - October 2026", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "IEA estimated global oil supply in September 2026.", "pt-BR": "Estimativa da AIE para a oferta mundial de petróleo em setembro de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Supply is a production flow, not exports or stocks; subsequent IEA revisions possible.", "pt-BR": "Oferta é fluxo de produção, não exportações ou estoques; sujeita a revisões da AIE." } }, { "id": "middle-east-refined-exports-2026-09", "indicator": "middle_east_refined_product_exports", "geography": "MIDDLE_EAST", "population": "Refined-product shipments from Middle East, IEA definition", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-14", "value": 1.9, "unit": "million_barrels_per_day", "status": "agency_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "IEA", "title": "Oil Market Report - October 2026", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "September 2026 refined-product shipments from the Middle East; IEA cites 4.7 mb/d pre-war.", "pt-BR": "Embarques de derivados do Oriente Médio em setembro de 2026; AIE informa referência pré-guerra de 4,7 milhões b/d." }, "comparator": { "value": 4.7, "period": "pre-war", "unit": "million_barrels_per_day", "interpretation": "IEA reference level; not a dated September 2025 observation" }, "caveat": { "en": "Product export category and regional definition differ from crude-oil production; the reference is not a precise matched-month counterfactual.", "pt-BR": "Categoria de derivados e geografia diferentes da produção de petróleo bruto; referência não é contrafactual mensal preciso." } }, { "id": "imf-global-growth-2026", "indicator": "global_real_gdp_growth_forecast", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "World real output; IMF WEO aggregate", "period": "2026", "released_at": "2026-10-13", "value": 3.1, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_projection", "source": { "publisher": "IMF", "title": "World Economic Outlook, October 2026", "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/10/13/world-economic-outlook-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "IMF projected world real GDP growth in 2026.", "pt-BR": "Projeção do FMI para o crescimento real do PIB mundial em 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Projection, not observed GDP growth; IMF WEO coverage, weighting and assumptions differ from OECD.", "pt-BR": "Projeção, não PIB observado; cobertura, ponderação e premissas do FMI diferem das usadas pela OCDE." }, "data_cutoff": "2026-10-01" }, { "id": "imf-global-inflation-2026", "indicator": "global_headline_inflation_forecast", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "Global CPI aggregates; IMF WEO", "period": "2026", "released_at": "2026-10-13", "value": 4.7, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_projection", "source": { "publisher": "IMF", "title": "World Economic Outlook, October 2026", "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/10/13/world-economic-outlook-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "IMF projected global headline consumer inflation for 2026.", "pt-BR": "Projeção do FMI para a inflação ao consumidor mundial em 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Projected worldwide aggregate; not euro-area or EU inflation and not a realized 12-month observation.", "pt-BR": "Agregado global projetado; não é inflação da zona do euro, da UE ou valor realizado em doze meses." }, "data_cutoff": "2026-10-01" }, { "id": "imf-global-growth-2027", "indicator": "global_real_gdp_growth_forecast", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "World real output; IMF WEO aggregate", "period": "2027", "released_at": "2026-10-13", "value": 3.4, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_projection", "source": { "publisher": "IMF", "title": "World Economic Outlook, October 2026", "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/10/13/world-economic-outlook-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "IMF projected world real GDP growth in 2027.", "pt-BR": "Projeção do FMI para o crescimento real do PIB mundial em 2027." }, "caveat": { "en": "Projection, not observed GDP growth; IMF WEO coverage, weighting and assumptions differ from OECD.", "pt-BR": "Projeção, não PIB observado; cobertura, ponderação e premissas do FMI diferem das usadas pela OCDE." }, "data_cutoff": "2026-10-01" }, { "id": "imf-global-inflation-2027", "indicator": "global_headline_inflation_forecast", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "Global CPI aggregates; IMF WEO", "period": "2027", "released_at": "2026-10-13", "value": 4.1, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_projection", "source": { "publisher": "IMF", "title": "World Economic Outlook, October 2026", "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/10/13/world-economic-outlook-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "IMF projected global headline consumer inflation for 2027.", "pt-BR": "Projeção do FMI para a inflação ao consumidor mundial em 2027." }, "caveat": { "en": "Projected worldwide aggregate; not euro-area or EU inflation and not a realized 12-month observation.", "pt-BR": "Agregado global projetado; não é inflação da zona do euro, da UE ou valor realizado em doze meses." }, "data_cutoff": "2026-10-01" }, { "id": "oecd-world-growth-2026", "indicator": "global_real_gdp_growth_forecast", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "World output, OECD economic-outlook aggregation", "period": "2026", "released_at": "2026-09-23", "value": 2.9, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_projection", "source": { "publisher": "OECD", "title": "OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2026", "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en.html" }, "description": { "en": "OECD September 2026 interim forecast for world real GDP growth in 2026.", "pt-BR": "Projeção da OCDE de setembro de 2026 para o PIB real mundial em 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Not interchangeable with IMF projections; earlier information cutoff, different model and aggregation.", "pt-BR": "Não é intercambiável com projeções do FMI; data de corte, modelo e agregação diferentes." }, "data_cutoff": "2026-09-23" }, { "id": "oecd-world-growth-2027", "indicator": "global_real_gdp_growth_forecast", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "World output, OECD economic-outlook aggregation", "period": "2027", "released_at": "2026-09-23", "value": 3, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_projection", "source": { "publisher": "OECD", "title": "OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2026", "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en.html" }, "description": { "en": "OECD September 2026 interim forecast for world real GDP growth in 2027.", "pt-BR": "Projeção da OCDE de setembro de 2026 para o PIB real mundial em 2027." }, "caveat": { "en": "Not interchangeable with IMF projections; earlier information cutoff, different model and aggregation.", "pt-BR": "Não é intercambiável com projeções do FMI; data de corte, modelo e agregação diferentes." }, "data_cutoff": "2026-09-23" }, { "id": "euro-area-energy-inflation-contribution-2026-09", "indicator": "energy_inflation_contribution", "geography": "EA21", "population": "Euro-area September headline HICP annual rate contributions", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-16", "value": 1.71, "unit": "percentage_points_contribution", "status": "official_final", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "Euro area annual inflation 3.8% in September 2026", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-16102026-ap" }, "description": { "en": "Energy component contribution to annual euro-area HICP inflation.", "pt-BR": "Contribuição do componente energético para a inflação anual IPCH da zona do euro." }, "caveat": { "en": "Contribution in percentage points, not the energy price index growth rate.", "pt-BR": "Contribuição em pontos percentuais, não variação percentual do índice de preços da energia." } }, { "id": "hicp-ro-2026-09", "indicator": "annual_hicp_inflation", "geography": "RO", "population": "Romania harmonised consumer expenditure basket", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-16", "value": 6.5, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_final", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "Euro area annual inflation 3.8% in September 2026", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-16102026-ap" }, "description": { "en": "Romania annual HICP inflation in September 2026.", "pt-BR": "Inflação anual IPCH da Romênia em setembro de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "National HICP is comparable by methodology, but household baskets and national exposures still differ.", "pt-BR": "IPCH nacional comparável metodologicamente; cestas das famílias e exposições locais diferem." } }, { "id": "hicp-lt-2026-09", "indicator": "annual_hicp_inflation", "geography": "LT", "population": "Lithuania harmonised consumer expenditure basket", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-16", "value": 6.1, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_final", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "Euro area annual inflation 3.8% in September 2026", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-16102026-ap" }, "description": { "en": "Lithuania annual HICP inflation in September 2026.", "pt-BR": "Inflação anual IPCH da Lituânia em setembro de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "National HICP is comparable by methodology, but household baskets and national exposures still differ.", "pt-BR": "IPCH nacional comparável metodologicamente; cestas das famílias e exposições locais diferem." } }, { "id": "hicp-bg-2026-09", "indicator": "annual_hicp_inflation", "geography": "BG", "population": "Bulgaria harmonised consumer expenditure basket", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-16", "value": 5.6, "unit": "percent_yoy", "status": "official_final", "source": { "publisher": "Eurostat", "title": "Euro area annual inflation 3.8% in September 2026", "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-16102026-ap" }, "description": { "en": "Bulgaria annual HICP inflation in September 2026.", "pt-BR": "Inflação anual IPCH da Bulgária em setembro de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "National HICP is comparable by methodology, but household baskets and national exposures still differ.", "pt-BR": "IPCH nacional comparável metodologicamente; cestas das famílias e exposições locais diferem." } }, { "id": "euaa-pending-first-instance-end-2025", "indicator": "asylum_cases_pending_first_instance", "geography": "EU_PLUS", "population": "Asylum cases awaiting a first-instance decision in EU+ countries", "period": "2025", "released_at": "2026-06-09", "value": 863000, "unit": "cases_approx", "status": "agency_estimate_rounded", "source": { "publisher": "EUAA", "title": "Asylum Report 2026, section 3.4", "url": "https://dip-aws.euaa.europa.eu/asylum-report-2026/34-data-applications-international-protection" }, "description": { "en": "Approximate EU+ asylum applications pending at first instance at the end of 2025.", "pt-BR": "Cerca de 863 mil processos de asilo pendentes de decisão de primeira instância na UE+ ao fim de 2025." }, "caveat": { "en": "Stock of undecided cases, not applications filed in the year or people arriving.", "pt-BR": "Estoque de processos não decididos, não número de pedidos feitos no ano ou pessoas que chegaram." } }, { "id": "iea-oil-demand-growth-2026", "indicator": "global_oil_demand_change_forecast", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "Annual average world oil demand year-on-year change", "period": "2026", "released_at": "2026-10-14", "value": -2.6, "unit": "million_barrels_per_day_change", "status": "agency_projection", "source": { "publisher": "IEA", "title": "Oil Market Report October 2026", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "IEA October forecast: world oil demand in 2026 averages 2.6 million b/d less than in 2025.", "pt-BR": "Previsão de outubro da AIE: demanda mundial de petróleo em 2026, em média, 2,6 milhões b/d menor que em 2025." }, "caveat": { "en": "Forecast change, not the absolute demand level or observed monthly supply.", "pt-BR": "Variação projetada, não nível absoluto de demanda nem oferta mensal observada." } }, { "id": "iea-gulf-crude-exports-2026-09", "indicator": "gulf_crude_exports", "geography": "MIDDLE_EAST", "population": "Gulf crude oil export shipments", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-14", "value": 13.9, "unit": "million_barrels_per_day", "status": "agency_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "IEA", "title": "Oil Market Report October 2026", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "IEA estimated Gulf crude exports of 13.9 million barrels/day in September 2026.", "pt-BR": "AIE estimou exportações de óleo bruto do Golfo de 13,9 milhões de barris/dia em setembro de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Crude exports, distinct from refined-product exports and production; subject to revision.", "pt-BR": "Exportação de petróleo bruto, distinta de derivados e produção; sujeita a revisões." } }, { "id": "iea-hormuz-oil-flows-2026-09", "indicator": "hormuz_oil_flows", "geography": "STRAIT_HORMUZ", "population": "Total oil transit through Strait of Hormuz", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-14", "value": 10.9, "unit": "million_barrels_per_day", "status": "agency_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "IEA", "title": "Oil Market Report October 2026", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "IEA estimated total oil flows through Hormuz of 10.9 million b/d in September 2026.", "pt-BR": "A AIE estimou trânsito total de petróleo por Hormuz em 10,9 milhões b/d em setembro de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Transit through a route, not an independent increment to Gulf crude exports.", "pt-BR": "Fluxo por uma rota, não acréscimo independente às exportações de óleo bruto do Golfo." } }, { "id": "iea-global-observed-oil-inventory-change-2026-09", "indicator": "observed_oil_stocks_change_since_feb_2026", "geography": "WORLD", "population": "IEA globally observed petroleum inventory levels at end September vs end February 2026", "period": "2026-09", "released_at": "2026-10-14", "value": -509, "unit": "million_barrels_change", "status": "agency_estimate", "source": { "publisher": "IEA", "title": "Oil Market Report October 2026", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026" }, "description": { "en": "Observed global inventories at end-September were 509 million barrels below end-February 2026 levels.", "pt-BR": "Estoques mundiais observados ao fim de setembro estavam 509 milhões de barris abaixo do fim de fevereiro de 2026." }, "caveat": { "en": "Observed change in stock over the named interval; not oil production, consumption or export flows.", "pt-BR": "Variação do estoque observado no intervalo, não produção, consumo ou exportação de petróleo." } } ] }