Argentina's Inflationary System: From the Formation of the Peso to the Stability Test of 2026
From the 1890 crisis and 1975 Rodrigazo to hyperinflation, dollarization, convertibility, debt crises and the 2026 stabilization test.
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Country Context — 2026
Country dossiers connecting institutions, society, production, capital, infrastructure and external dependencies.
Lithuania: security-state investment, energy decoupling and the productivity limits of Baltic convergence
Lithuania has combined rapid EU income convergence with energy decoupling from Russia and defence spending above 5% of GDP; the structural test is whether security mobilisation, renewable investment and EU funds raise productivity fast enough to offset ageing and a shrinking labour base.
Read research →Portugal: fiscal repair, migration-led labour supply and the productivity test after the recovery-fund cycle
Portugal has cut public debt sharply, reached historically low unemployment and built a renewable-heavy electricity system, but productivity, housing and ageing will determine whether post-PRR growth produces durable convergence in living standards.
Read research →Türkiye: industrial scale, monetary disinflation and strategic autonomy between Europe and Asia
Türkiye combines deep manufacturing, low sovereign debt and strategic geography with still-high inflation, external energy dependence and an unfinished shift toward higher-technology production; the central test is whether current disinflation becomes a durable institutional regime.
Read research →Germany: export-industrial depth, federal bargaining and the fiscal-energy transition of Europe's largest economy
Germany retains exceptional industrial depth and institutional capacity, but its 2026 transition depends on converting larger infrastructure, defence and energy investment into productivity while employment and demography tighten.
Read research →Israel: security-state capacity, technological concentration and the fiscal-demographic limits of resilience
Israel combines globally competitive technology and defence systems with unusually deep mobilisation capacity, but the post-2023 security burden, infrastructure gaps and uneven demographic participation increasingly determine whether resilience can remain fiscally and socially durable.
Read research →Poland: convergence, security-state investment and the transition from coal-intensive growth to a higher-capital economy
Poland combines fast convergence, manufacturing integration and EU-funded investment with demographic contraction, renewed inflation, record defence spending and a rapid renewable-nuclear energy transition.
Read research →Ukraine: war-state capacity, demographic rupture and the economics of reconstruction
Ukraine has preserved macroeconomic and institutional continuity under war, but its long-run trajectory depends on converting external finance, EU accession, reconstruction and defence innovation into productive capacity while reversing demographic loss.
Read research →Singapore: sovereign balance-sheet capitalism, logistics density and the constraints of a small open state
Singapore converts land scarcity and external dependence into a dense system of public housing, compulsory savings, sovereign assets, ports, finance and advanced manufacturing; its next constraint is whether productivity and regional integration can offset ageing, imported energy and geopolitical fragmentation.
Read research →France: centralized state capacity, social protection and the fiscal constraint on European strategic autonomy
A structural dossier on how France's centralized institutions, welfare state, strategic industries, nuclear electricity and euro membership interact with weak productivity growth and rising fiscal pressure.
Read research →United States: continental scale, federal fragmentation and the institutions behind dollar-centered power
A structural dossier on how federal institutions, regional production, demographics and capital markets shape U.S. capacity and the global transmission of dollar conditions.
Read research →Argentina: frontier wealth, distributive conflict and the century-long search for a stable monetary-fiscal regime
Argentina moved from one of the world's richest agro-export economies to repeated cycles of industrialization, inflation, debt crisis and stabilization; in 2026 the central question is whether the latest fiscal and monetary adjustment can become an institutional regime rather than another temporary stabilization.
Read research →Bolivia: extractive cycles, revolutionary redistribution and the foreign-exchange constraint after the gas boom
Bolivia's history links silver, tin, gas and lithium to repeated struggles over who controls resource rents and how a landlocked, high-altitude economy integrates with neighbours; in 2026 falling buffers, inflation and recession make macro stabilization and export reconstruction the immediate structural test.
Read research →Brazil: continental scale, inequality and the long struggle to turn state capacity and natural wealth into productivity
Brazil moved from colonial extraction and slavery through state-led industrialization, inflationary crisis, stabilization and commodity-financed social expansion; in 2026 its central challenge is to raise productivity and investment while preserving macro stability, reducing inequality and integrating a continental economy.
Read research →China: state formation, industrial scale and the transition from investment-led growth to a mature economy
China's present economic power rests on a long history of state capacity, a twentieth-century revolutionary rupture and an extraordinary post-1978 industrial transformation; by 2026 the central problem has shifted from building capacity to allocating income, capital and risk across an aging, highly productive but increasingly imbalanced economy.
Read research →Egypt: river-state continuity, demographic pressure and the struggle to finance a strategic crossroads
Egypt's economy has repeatedly been organized around the Nile, a dense population core and control of routes between the Mediterranean, Red Sea, Africa and Asia; in 2026 the central challenge is to convert strategic geography and a large domestic market into productivity while reducing inflation, debt pressure and the state's crowding-out of private capital.
Read research →Ethiopia: highland state formation, demographic scale and the difficult transition from public-investment growth to a market-based economy
Ethiopia combines a long history of highland state formation with one of Africa's largest populations and a recent model of state-led infrastructure and industrial investment; in 2026 rapid growth coexists with inflation, foreign-exchange reform, debt restructuring and the social consequences of recent conflict.
Read research →India: demographic scale, institutional continuity and the unfinished transformation from agriculture to high-productivity employment
India combines civilizational depth, colonial institutional legacies, post-independence state building and a post-1991 market acceleration; in 2026 its central economic problem is converting exceptional demographic and digital scale into mass productive employment, urban capacity and higher productivity.
Read research →Indonesia: archipelagic state formation, commodity upgrading and the challenge of converting scale into productivity
Indonesia's modern economy was shaped by maritime trade, colonial extraction, post-independence state building and a post-1998 democratic decentralization; in 2026 its central challenge is to turn a vast domestic market, mineral endowments and infrastructure investment into higher productivity without recreating commodity dependence or regional fragmentation.
Read research →Iran: imperial state traditions, oil sovereignty and the economic cost of prolonged external isolation
Iran combines ancient state traditions with a modern oil economy repeatedly reorganized by revolution, war and sanctions; the 2026 regional conflict magnifies long-standing constraints on investment, inflation and financial integration.
Read research →Paraguay: war-shaped state formation, hydroelectric rents and the transition from low-cost agriculture to investment-grade growth
Paraguay's small, landlocked economy was profoundly reshaped by nineteenth-century war, twentieth-century authoritarian rule and later integration through Itaipu, agriculture and Mercosur; in 2026 strong growth, renewable electricity and improving credit quality create an opportunity to raise productivity beyond commodities and informality.
Read research →Russia: state capacity, mobilization and social transformation from Rus' to the 2026 war economy
A millennium-scale reconstruction of how territory, fiscal-military institutions, serfdom, industrialization, Soviet planning, post-Soviet transition, resource rents, demography and war shaped the Russian economy and society.
Read research →Saudi Arabia: dynastic state formation, oil rent conversion and the transition from distributive monarchy to investment state
Saudi Arabia's modern economy emerged from political unification, religious alliance and the discovery of world-scale oil reserves; in 2026 Vision 2030 is attempting to convert hydrocarbon rents and sovereign capital into a broader productive economy while the regional war tests export routes, fiscal priorities and investor confidence.
Read research →South Africa: mineral wealth, apartheid's spatial legacy and the productivity cost of exclusion
South Africa built Africa's deepest mining-financial-industrial system through gold, diamonds and state-supported infrastructure, but apartheid locked labour and urban space into extreme inequality; three decades after democratization, weak investment, unemployment, electricity and logistics remain the central constraints on inclusive growth.
Read research →United Arab Emirates: federation, hydrocarbon rents and the construction of a global logistics-finance platform
The UAE transformed a small federation of Gulf emirates into a global hub for oil, trade, aviation, finance and migration; in 2026 its structural advantage is not simply hydrocarbon wealth but the ability to convert rents into infrastructure, institutions and international networks while managing geopolitical and demographic dependence.
Read research →Uruguay: export pastoralism, early welfare institutions and the productivity challenge of a small aging economy
Uruguay built unusually strong social and political institutions on a cattle-export economy, later combining welfare, state enterprises, financial openness and renewable energy; in 2026 its main constraint is not macro instability but slow productivity and demographic growth in a very small domestic market.
Read research →Venezuela: oil-state formation, institutional collapse and the economics of partial stabilization after hyperinflation
Venezuela transformed from an agricultural exporter into one of the world's archetypal oil states, using petroleum rents to finance urbanization and social policy; the later collapse of production, institutions and money generated mass migration, and by 2026 partial market adaptation coexists with renewed extreme inflation.
Read research →Japan: aging, monetary normalization and the external balance behind a global creditor economy
Japan combines a shrinking workforce, monetary normalization, heavy energy-import dependence and a huge external asset position; together they explain why domestic policy changes can transmit into global rates, currencies and capital allocation.
Read research →Saudi Arabia: oil buffers, state-led diversification and the limits of substitution
Saudi Arabia is using hydrocarbon income, state capital and logistics redundancy to widen its productive base, but fiscal dependence, private-sector productivity, labour segmentation and Gulf geography still constrain the transition.
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