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Oil below $100 has reduced an acute inflation extreme downside risks, but a firm dollar, high long yields, European gas costs and incomplete Gulf normalization keep global financial conditions restrictive.
A millennium-scale reconstruction of how territory, fiscal-military institutions, serfdom, industrialization, Soviet planning, post-Soviet transition, resource rents, demography and war shaped the Russian economy and society.
Latency, programmable liquidity, tokenised settlement and event contracts are turning market architecture into an economic variable, while the evidence is maturing at different speeds across each mechanism.
The 2026 LIC-DSF review adds domestic-debt and long-term modules, recalibrates debt-stress thresholds, introduces new model signals and data-confidence treatment, while keeping the harmonised discount rate at 5%.
The latest institutional cycle combines tighter policy in the United States and Japan, a divided hold in the United Kingdom, a new IMF–World Bank debt framework for low-income countries, live Eurosystem settlement of tokenised assets in central bank money, and a new NDB strategy cycle.
Oil relief lifted equities and sensitivity to long-term interest rates, but long U.S. yields, European gas pass-through and unresolved geopolitical constraints keep the global regime restrictive.
The 1994 stabilization separated the unit of account from the means of payment before launching the real, attacking backward-looking indexation while fiscal, monetary, credit and exchange-rate measures supported the transition.
Oil relief and selective AI strength coexist with Treasury yields above 5%, while U.S.-China talks reduce diplomatic opacity without yet changing trade or technology restrictions.
Dollar liquidity remained central while long-term U.S. securities flows weakened, money-market assets stayed near $8 trillion, gold ETF holdings reached a record and higher policy rates raised the financing hurdle for long-sensitivity to long-term interest rates investment.
Vietnam's move to FTSE Secondary Emerging status begins a phased test of whether non-prefunding, global-broker access and upgraded market infrastructure can convert index eligibility into durable institutional capital and deeper corporate financing.
Lower oil is easing the immediate inflation shock, but a 4.93% U.S. 10-year par yield, a steep 2s30s curve, defensive fund flows and weak Chinese credit demand keep global financing conditions restrictive as U.S.-China talks move AI and rare earths into the near-term calendar.
A long-horizon reconstruction of the institutions, identities, threat perceptions, political economies and strategic choices that connect Ukraine, Russia, NATO and Europe—from the cooperative opening of the 1990s to the militarized security order of 2026.
Theses, risks and indicators from up to three publications, with the date of each assessment.