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French sovereign and bank risk premia are widening faster than the common euro-area rate shock, while AI-linked borrowers still access large pools of capital at a higher marginal price.
A structural dossier on how France's centralized institutions, welfare state, strategic industries, nuclear electricity and euro membership interact with weak productivity growth and rising fiscal pressure.
August capital-goods orders show a resilient U.S. equipment-investment cycle even as long real and nominal yields remain restrictive and household inflation expectations rise.
A structural dossier on how federal institutions, regional production, demographics and capital markets shape U.S. capacity and the global transmission of dollar conditions.
Global equities are heading for their best week since early August even as long sovereign yields remain near multi-decade highs, revealing a selective cross-asset shock rather than uniform tightening.
A strong U.S. activity surprise and weak Treasury auction pushed the 10-year above 5.1%, transmitted into Japanese bonds and restored sovereign duration as the main cross-asset tightening channel while oil risk rebounded.
Oil below $100 has reduced an acute inflation tail risk, but a firm dollar, high long yields, European gas costs and incomplete Gulf normalization keep global financial conditions restrictive.
An institutional and economic reconstruction of how BRICS evolved from a four-country analytical category into an 11-member coordination system with a development bank, wider diplomatic reach and rising internal heterogeneity.
A structural reconstruction of Mercosur as a political peace project, imperfect customs union, production network and external negotiating platform at the moment Bolivia is incorporated and the EU agreement enters provisional application.
Argentina moved from one of the world's richest agro-export economies to repeated cycles of industrialization, inflation, debt crisis and stabilization; in 2026 the central question is whether the latest fiscal and monetary adjustment can become an institutional regime rather than another temporary stabilization.
Bolivia's history links silver, tin, gas and lithium to repeated struggles over who controls resource rents and how a landlocked, high-altitude economy integrates with neighbours; in 2026 falling buffers, inflation and recession make macro stabilization and export reconstruction the immediate structural test.
Brazil moved from colonial extraction and slavery through state-led industrialization, inflationary crisis, stabilization and commodity-financed social expansion; in 2026 its central challenge is to raise productivity and investment while preserving macro stability, reducing inequality and integrating a continental economy.
Theses, risks and indicators from up to three publications, with the date of each assessment.