Permanent research on global macroeconomics, monetary policy, rates, currencies, energy, credit and cross-asset transmission.
US job openings at 7.5 million, Treasury ten-year yields at 4.95%, an Australian rate hike, softer crude and Brazil's 1.42% equity decline show why lower energy futures are not yet broad financial easing.
Read research →Brent's 7.63% fall, October US ISM 55.5 with prices 75.2, weaker Nasdaq, divergent European industry and pending US midterms and Brazil Copom reveal a global battle between energy relief and the cost of finance.
Read research →October PMIs slow in Korea and Japan while China's official and private surveys diverge; OPEC+ held December production requirements and Japan's 1.25% policy rate frames credit risk.
Read research →Korean October semiconductor export receipts surged as Chinese orders weakened; the official September baseline corrects the trade-surplus comparison, while OPEC+ held December production requirements.
Read research →China's October factory and export-order surveys fell below 50, Europe's Q3 GDP growth slowed and US yields eased; uneven demand meets persistent energy risks.
Read research →US GDP accelerated to 3.4% annualised while September real disposable income fell; Treasury yields declined, technology shares sold off, and Japan changed its future ETF disposal pace.
Read research →The Fed held 3.75–4.00% with two dissents while Canada raised rates; US long yields rose despite a softer two-year yield, revealing divergent responses to energy inflation and financing needs.
Read research →SK hynix's contracted HBM capacity and record profits expose a widening gap between supplier earnings and downstream AI financing, while Australia and New Zealand diverge on inflation and rates.
Read research →Brazil's 13.88% equity selloff, FX depreciation and debt-auction cancellation contrast with gains in US and European stocks and stable US yields.
Read research →The TSE confirms Lula's 51.79% runoff win as Brazil approaches Monday trading with ten-year US Treasury yields at 5.00%, oil costs elevated and policy outcomes still conditional.
Read research →Brazil's Sunday runoff creates a closed-market political information shock as Friday's crude futures reflect renewed Gulf shipping risk; the cross-asset transmission depends on fiscal institutions, dollar yields and physical throughput.
Read research →New October flash PMIs reveal a sharp US/euro-area divergence while Treasury yields, household affordability and fund flows signal selective risk-taking.
Read research →New Japanese September inflation shows 2.1% headline and 2.4% excluding fresh food and energy; euro-area quarterly debt reaches 88.8% of GDP and the US 30-year mortgage rate remains high at 7.32%.
Read research →US initial claims fall to 194,000 while continuing insured unemployment rises; China's manufacturing diverges from construction and European inflation remains energy-led.
Read research →The UK reports 3.5% annual CPI inflation, 8.3% producer input inflation and £24.52 billion in monthly borrowing, exposing the transmission of energy shocks into prices and public finances.
Read research →September US housing starts declined and contracts for existing homes fell sharply as 30-year mortgage rates reached 7.40%, exposing diverging household and industrial cycles.
Read research →September output rose 0.7% but utilities and semiconductors outpaced ordinary manufacturing, while overall utilization remained below normal.
Read research →IMF sovereign-yield evidence and new projections reveal how energy prices interact with debt maturity, fiscal support and financial liquidity.
Read research →IEA October data show Gulf crude exports recovering faster than refined diesel shipments, creating differentiated risks to trade costs and real incomes.
Read research →US September import prices rose 1.1% and export prices 2.2%; final euro-area annual inflation at 3.8% exposes energy-driven differences across countries and trade channels.
Read research →September US PPI rose 1.3% and CPI 0.6% while real hourly earnings fell 0.5%; the key test is energy pass-through into core prices, demand and sovereign financing.
Read research →The IMF's October 14 fiscal warning intersects with divergent US winter heating expenses and a still-pending September CPI release; debt refinancing and household incidence are the core transmission channels.
Read research →The IMF now projects 3.1% world growth and 4.7% global inflation in 2026; AI concentration, energy import exposure and sovereign finance frame the risks.
Read research →Fed and ECB tightening, euro-area inflation at 3.8%, weaker US hiring and high sovereign debt frame the IMF–World Bank meetings and the week's coming data.
Read research →A new UNDP assessment quantifies rising fuel costs, potential poverty exposure and shrinking fiscal room before the IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok.
Read research →Brazil's September IPCA reached 0.82% as the Itaipu rebate reversed; equities rose even while U.S. Treasury yields and oil kept financing and living costs elevated.
Read research →EIA raised Brent forecasts for 2026 and 2027; long Treasury yields eased after the 8 October auction, but Brazil's Friday IPCA and future energy pass-through remain unresolved.
Read research →The U.S. 30-year auction cleared at 5.618% with 2.54-times cover; benchmark yields fell from Wednesday's close even as Brent stayed above $100 and the Fed exposed a new competition for long-term capital.
Read research →Oil is back above $101 while U.S. long yields return to multi-decade extremes, putting the 10-year Treasury reopening and FOMC minutes at the center of today's financial-conditions test.
Read research →Long U.S. yields remain near multi-decade highs even as oil eases below the recent risk peak, equities stay resilient, China stabilizes and Brazil absorbs a post-election repricing shock.
Read research →U.S. services remain in expansion and global manufacturing is at its strongest since 2022, while weak payrolls, high business price indexes, 5%+ long yields and Brazil's post-election repricing create a more unstable policy mix.
Read research →Seven OPEC+ producers kept September required production unchanged for November, while the JMMC warned that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to maritime routes can tighten supply and increase volatility.
Read research →September payrolls rose only 29,000 and July-August were revised down by 60,000, but PCE inflation remains 3.4% and long Treasury yields stayed above 5%.
Read research →Euro-area inflation accelerated to 3.8% as energy reached 18.8%; Japan unemployment rose to 2.5% while new job postings fell 3.4% year on year.
Read research →U.S. factory demand strengthened, but ISM Prices rose to 77.9 and the 10-year Treasury stayed above 5%; Europe softened while propane exports hit records.
Read research →China's manufacturing PMI returned to 50.1 while Australia's CPI accelerated to 4.0% and UK second-quarter growth was revised to 0.5%, turning policy divergence into measurable macro divergence.
Read research →Australia raised its cash rate to 4.60% while China cut the one-year PSL rate to 1.50% and added targeted housing support, widening regional policy dispersion under a U.S. long-rate regime above 5%.
Read research →Refined-product inflation is outrunning the crude headline, widening the transmission from Hormuz into freight, prices and monetary policy as Australia approaches another rate decision.
Read research →French sovereign and bank risk premia are widening faster than the common euro-area rate shock, while AI-linked borrowers still access large pools of capital at a higher marginal price.
Read research →August capital-goods orders show a resilient U.S. equipment-investment cycle even as long real and nominal yields remain restrictive and household inflation expectations rise.
Read research →Global equities are heading for their best week since early August even as long sovereign yields remain near multi-decade highs, revealing a selective cross-asset shock rather than uniform tightening.
Read research →A strong U.S. activity surprise and weak Treasury auction pushed the 10-year above 5.1%, transmitted into Japanese bonds and restored sovereign duration as the main cross-asset tightening channel while oil risk rebounded.
Read research →Oil below $100 has reduced an acute inflation tail risk, but a firm dollar, high long yields, European gas costs and incomplete Gulf normalization keep global financial conditions restrictive.
Read research →Oil relief lifted equities and duration, but long U.S. yields, European gas pass-through and unresolved geopolitical constraints keep the global regime restrictive.
Read research →Oil relief and selective AI strength coexist with Treasury yields above 5%, while U.S.-China talks reduce diplomatic opacity without yet changing trade or technology restrictions.
Read research →Lower oil is easing the immediate inflation shock, but a 4.93% U.S. 10-year par yield, a steep 2s30s curve, defensive fund flows and weak Chinese credit demand keep global financing conditions restrictive as U.S.-China talks move AI and rare earths into the near-term calendar.
Read research →Lower oil is easing the immediate inflation shock, but near-5% Treasury yields, synchronized central-bank tightening and large equity-fund outflows keep global financial conditions restrictive.
Read research →Lower oil is easing immediate inflation tail risk while the Fed, BOE and BOJ keep global financing conditions restrictive; Japan, European gas and Gulf logistics reveal where the next cross-asset divergences sit.
Read research →Partial relief in Saudi export logistics has reduced the immediate crude-supply tail risk, but Fed tightening keeps global financial conditions restrictive while Hormuz traffic remains severely impaired.
Read research →Saudi Arabia’s new loading route via Oman reduces the immediate risk of oil scarcity and eases yields at the margin, but a 10-year Treasury near 5% keeps global financing conditions restrictive ahead of the Fed and Copom decisions.
Read research →Oil at US$107–108, the 10-year Treasury up to 5.04% and a stronger dollar turn the energy disruption into a broader increase in financing costs; credit markets still do not indicate a systemic crisis.
Read research →The energy supply shock, a 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, the semiconductor correction, weak Chinese credit and Brazil's election are interacting through inflation, financing costs, currencies and risk appetite.
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