Permanent research on global macroeconomics, monetary policy, rates, currencies, energy, credit and cross-asset transmission.
Lower oil is easing the immediate inflation shock, but a 4.93% U.S. 10-year par yield, a steep 2s30s curve, defensive fund flows and weak Chinese credit demand keep global financing conditions restrictive as U.S.-China talks move AI and rare earths into the near-term calendar.
Read research →Lower oil is easing the immediate inflation shock, but near-5% Treasury yields, synchronized central-bank tightening and large equity-fund outflows keep global financial conditions restrictive.
Read research →Lower oil is easing immediate inflation tail risk while the Fed, BOE and BOJ keep global financing conditions restrictive; Japan, European gas and Gulf logistics reveal where the next cross-asset divergences sit.
Read research →Partial relief in Saudi export logistics has reduced the immediate crude-supply tail risk, but Fed tightening keeps global financial conditions restrictive while Hormuz traffic remains severely impaired.
Read research →Saudi Arabia’s new loading route via Oman reduces the immediate risk of oil scarcity and eases yields at the margin, but a 10-year Treasury near 5% keeps global financing conditions restrictive ahead of the Fed and Copom decisions.
Read research →Oil at US$107–108, the 10-year Treasury up to 5.04% and a stronger dollar turn the energy disruption into a broader increase in financing costs; credit markets still do not indicate a systemic crisis.
Read research →The energy supply shock, a 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, the semiconductor correction, weak Chinese credit and Brazil's election are interacting through inflation, financing costs, currencies and risk appetite.
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